With the NCAA Tournament just about a month away and college basketball fans longing for the Madness, ESPN has put together a tasty little appetizer to get us through February. This awesome idea, now in it's 6th season of existence, is called BracketBusters. This coming weekend, February 22nd-24th, 28 mid-majors with tournament aspirations get one last shot to make a lasting impression against a non-conference opponent. While only a few of the teams that will be playing still have at-large life, these games could mean the distance between seeding and a favorable draw for the first weekend of the tournament.
It's always a gamble to stick your neck out and make predictions on such even matchups, especially with teams that have garnered such little exposure up to this point. But, since BracketBusters is such a great event, I thought I'd take the time to learn about these teams and offer up my forecast for how the weekend will go down.
February 22nd
Davidson @ Winthrop, 7 PM (ESPN2)
The Davidson Wildcats are the best team you don't know about. They light up the scoreboard, they are on a 16 game win streak, and they played competitively against a grueling non-conference schedule. Led by Stephen Curry (25.6 PPG), the 'Cats lost by 4 to UNC, 6 to Duke, 12 to UCLA and 1 to N.C. State. The Winthrop Eagles play an entirely different type of game, slow down, drag it out, down tempo. They only have one home loss, but I forecast that it will soon be two. Davidson rolls on the road. PICK: Davidson 79-61
UC-Santa Barbara @ Utah St., 9 PM (ESPNU)
Utah State has an unblemished home record, but with the exception of Iowa, every non-conference opponent with a pulse has blasted the Aggies. The Gauchos of UC-SB were great in non-conference, and have an impressive road record. They haven't been pushed around since a 35 point setback to North Carolina before Christmas. UC-SB is currently on a 3 game winning streak, while the Aggies have dropped 3 consecutive. Santa Barbara will lean on their defense, and it will get them a road win. PICK: UC-Santa Barbara 68-56
February 23rd
VCU @ Akron, 11 AM (ESPN2)
Leading scorer Eric Maynor and the VCU Rams are a tough, defense-minded team, who I have had the chance to watch once this season. They lost that road game, but I still came away very impressed with their defensive discipline. They lead the competitive CAA by 2 games. Akron has hung tough in the MAC, but dropped their last home game to cellar dwelling NIU. I look for VCU to bring their hard-nosed mentality into Akron's gym and leave with an impressive win. PICK: Virginia Commonwealth 59-48
George Mason @ Ohio, 1 PM (ESPN2)
The Bobcats of OU have been struggling the last couple weeks, losing 3 of 5 in conference. However, they hold an undefeated home record. They face off against 2006 tournament darlings George Mason. A few holdovers remain from that team, most notably Folarin Campbell. But, they have had their struggles on the road and I look for that to continue. OU controls the pace and wins a game slower than GMU is used to playing. PICK: Ohio 61-53
Creighton @ Oral Roberts, 3 PM (ESPN2)
Creighton has been a mid-major story in college basketball for the last few years. While they haven't exactly been a disappointment this season, perhaps a little more was expected of this club. A 9-7 conference record isn't what fans of the team that put the MVC on the map (with all due respect to SIU, Creighton's tourney success was the hallmark) had in mind. Oral Roberts on the other hand, is undefeated at home, and was defending an 11 game win streak before they fell at IUPUI, but they promptly rattled off two more victories, to extend their Summit League lead to 2 games. They are a very well rounded team, with four players averaging double digits. I think that will come in to play, and a strong team effort gives this game to ORU at home. PICK: Oral Roberts 71-60
Nevada @ Southern Illinois, 4:30 PM (ESPNU)
It's a good thing the Salukis get this one in their house, because SIU is a dismal 2-9 on the road this season. At home, however, this is another ball club altogether. Just last week they toppled Drake, who was previously undefeated in conference play and is unquestionably the class of the MVC. Saturday they welcome Nevada, who is definitely the better team in my opinion. JaVale McGee, a sophomore, is a veritable star, who will play NBA ball, perhaps before his senior season. Marcelus Kemp (20.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG), Nevada's leading scorer, is a great all-around player, who can get it done on both ends of the floor, as well as on the glass and from long distance. I've seen SIU once this year and Nevada twice. Kemp and his Wolfpack will come into Carbondale and leave with a convincing win. PICK: Nevada 73-54
Drake @ Butler, 5 PM (ESPN2)
The marquee matchup of BracketBusters pits two ranked Bulldogs flying through amazing seasons. Drake, preseason afterthoughts in the ever competitive MVC, has run roughshod over the conference. Their only losses on the season came on the road to three BracketBusters in SIU, Bradley and St. Mary's. They have already clinched the MVC regular season crown. But, two of those three losses have come since Feb. 13. Butler has a similar story. Their only two losses on the year have come to in-conference BracketBusters Cleveland State and Wright State. However, Butler has been sloppy as of late, playing close games against teams they should be beating handily. This should live up to it's billing as the best matchup of the weekend. I like Butler, however, to stay undefeated at home and continue their run to a great seed in the tourney. PICK: Butler 56-51
Miami (OH) @ Valparaiso, 6 PM (ESPN Classic)
The Miami (OH) RedHawks came oh-so-close to taking down Oregon in last year's tourney. This season started with a victory over Xavier, who has gone on to big things this season. Miami however, has gotten left in the dust. A poor non-conference showing outside of Xavier and an overtime road upset of Illinois was followed by an 0-3 MAC start. they went on a 5 game tear in the MAC, but have since dropped 2 of 3. They like to play a slow, down-tempo game, and are comfortable with a score in the 50's. The Crusaders of Valparaiso also had high hopes for this season. Their first year as a member of the Horizon League started out with a promising 10-1 start. But, a surprisingly staunch and competitive Horizon has proven Valpo to be overmatched, as they have limped to a 6-9 record. However, the Redhawks have struggled on the road, and in the two games I've seen of the Crusaders this year, I've seen flashes of ability. Valparaiso gives the home fans something to go crazy about in a lost season, with a classic buzzer beater for ESPN Classic. PICK: Valparaiso 62-61
Marist @ Cleveland State, 6:30 PM (ESPNU)
A matchup of two teams with similar stories to their year. Once promising seasons have hit a snag in the last couple of weeks for these two. The Marist Foxes, 8-2 in conference play at one point, have dropped 5 of their last 6, surrendering just under 81 points a game. The Vikings of Cleveland State have also struggled of late. They flew out to a stunning 7-0 start in the Horizon League, including a win over league juggernaut and fellow BracketBuster Butler, but promptly dropped 5 straight. The Vikings, however, have righted the ship, winning 3 in a row before narrowly falling at Butler. They followed up that close loss with a revenge home win over UW-Milwaukee. I feel that this will be the difference. The Vikings continue their winning ways at home. PICK: Cleveland State 65-54
*My apologies for being a homer and using a CSU picture for this article. But, I had to pick someone right? Might as well go with my favorite. And if it makes you feel any better, that's a Butler player on the ground, and they are the marquee match-up. So there.
Rider @ Cal State Northridge, 9 PM (ESPNU)
The Broncs (not Broncos, Broncs) of Rider have lost three straight to fall into a 4-way tie for first place in the MAAC. They have a lock for the NBA in senior Jason Thompson. The 6'11" senior is averaging 20.3 PPG and 11.7 RPG as well as 2.9 blocks. Cal State Northridge is having themselves a dream season. They have not been very competitive since joining the Big West, but they currently hold a half game lead for first place in the conference. They are as well rounded as any team in BracketBusters, with 5 players averaging double figures. Rider has been a good road team this season, but there's a difference between hopping over to a bordering state and traveling almost 3,000 miles for a game. And, the Matadors starting 5 will wreak havoc. I like Northridge to extend their current winning streak to 4 games, but it'll be close. PICK: Cal State Northridge, 76-73
UW-Milwaukee at Bradley, 9 p.m. (ESPN360.com)
When Bruce Pearl departed from the Panthers of UW-M the spirit of the program slowly leaked away as well. They went to the tourney the year after Pearl's departure, but followed that up with a 9-22 clunker of a season. This season they are limping along in the middle of the pack in a fairly talented Horizon League, but they have lost 4 of 5. Bradley, however, is hitting their stride. The Braves followed up a blowout over Creighton with the MVC upset of the year, taking down Drake in their house, 72-71. It's an easy cop out to take the home team, but I like Bradley to keep up the winning ways, in a close one. PICK: Bradley, 73-71
Siena at Boise State, 10 p.m. (ESPN360.com)
While there won't be any hook and ladders or statue of liberty plays in this one, you can expect the Boise State Broncos to light up the scoreboard just like their gridiron counterparts. The Broncos are the best shooting team in the nation, at 51.6%, and currently lead the WAC by a half game. Their 11-3 home record isn't incredibly daunting, but their trio of star forwards certainly is. Reggie Larry (19.3 PPG, 9.1 RPG), Matt Nelson (15.6 PPG) and Tyler Tiedeman will challenge a Siena team that struggles mightily on the boards. They are built for speed, led by sophomore guard Edwin Ubiles, who has scored in double figures in all but one game this year, and dropped 37 in a loss to Loyola (MD). The Saints are on a 2 game losing streak, and since they are in a 4-way tie for first in the MAAC at 11-5 with 2 conference games to go, I am guessing their mind will be on that. Not to mention, Boise is simply the better team. They roll. PICK: Boise State 87-67
Kent State @ Saint Mary's, 11:59 PM (ESPN2)
This looks to be the game with the biggest NCAA Tournament implications. While the Gaels appear fairly solid to dance, Saint Mary's remarkable season could be derailed with a 3rd place WCC finish and a loss in the conference tournament. They are deadlocked for first with Gonzaga, and San Diego lingers a game and a half back. The Golden Flashes of Kent State cling to at-large hopes. Their strength of schedule is a liability, but they have taken care of their business in the MAC. This is a huge opportunity for them to get a marquee victory. However, I feel they are simply overmatched. The Gaels defend their perfect home record, and convincingly. PICK: Saint Mary's 81-56
February 24th
Wright State @ Illinois State, 6:30 PM (ESPNU)
Wright State is on an 11 game winning streak. Impressive, right? Perhaps not as much as you'd think. With the exception of independent Presbyterian (0-21 on the road this season) the Raiders have won those games by an average of 2.9 points, and haven't won a conference game by double digits since January 10th, their only victory of that variety. Illinois State is 4-5 in their last 9, and haven't been playing too well themselves. However, there was an interesting common opponent link between the two teams. Illinois State played Horizon League member UIC, and crushed them 73-47. Wright State did defeat UIC both times, but both victories were by a single point. That coupled with home court for the Redbirds makes me think they have the edge. PICK: Illinois State 59-51
Well, there you have it. I could nail all 14 games, I could crash and burn. That's the beauty of this weekend. These match-ups for the most part are as even as it gets. We are going to have a generous helping of college basketball this weekend, be sure to enjoy as much of it as you can! Feel free to post your picks in the comments section to see how we stack up.
2 comments:
I do not think you are giving Kent State enough credit in your prediction of this game. No, Kent's strength of schedule is not the greatest, but look at it compared to that of St. Mary's. Their loss to Xavier was by 13, but the game was much closer until the closing minutes. The North Carolina game was indeed a blowout, and they did not stand a chance the entire game, but what about some of their non-conference wins against teams such as the more recently good George Mason team of whom they beat by 18! Then 2 games later, they handled a surprsing (at the time) Cleveland State team by 15. On the other hand you look at St. Mary's non-conference schedule and they played the likes of Texas, who personally I think could make a final four run, and an Oregon team who to me I don't see to be that consistent of a team. Finally, look at the strength of the conference schedules. There are 4 or 5 teams that COULD make the tournament as the automatic bid. You've got 5 teams with better than .500 records and theres also a 6th team, Central Michigan, who always seems to make some noise come tourney time. In the West Coast Conference, maybe all 3 teams will make the tourney, albeit I think San Diego will only have a chance if they win out, but the rest of the conference just stinks. I may be somewhat of a homer because I go to Kent, but watching this team and being at games and feeling the intensity that they put out in those games, I think this game will be a lot closer than what you are predicting. I also believe that if Kent can find a way to win out the MAC, and lose the tourney, and still fail to make the final cut of 65, it will be a shame. Kent is by far the best team in the MAC, and they deserve to play with the big boys come mid-March
My pick isnt a knock on kent state at all, more a glowing review of saint mary's. ive seen them play multiple times this season, and they are for real. like elite 8 kind of for real. whether they actually will go that far remains to be seen, but they have the ability, of that i am sure. dont be discouraged, because ksu is a good ballclub, i think its between them and OU for the auto bid. ive seen a ton of MAC basketball and those are the two squads that have stuck out. saint marys is just on another level, they would have ravaged the MAC this year. not to mention kent will be traveling about 3000 miles into an undefeated gym. and that brings up the gym itself. if youve ever seen a gaels home game, that is the poorest lit gymnasium imaginable, its really staggering, and i cant imagine it being too easy to go and play there for a first time. so like i said, ksu is not overmatched because they are a bad team, they are just running into a much better one
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